Module 5.1: Forecasting Fundamentals
- Time series components: trend, seasonality, cyclicality
- Forecast accuracy metrics: MAPE, MAD, MSE, bias
- Forecast horizons and update frequencies
- Understanding forecast error
- Collaborative forecasting (S&OP)
Module 5.2: Quantitative Forecasting Methods
- Moving averages and weighted moving averages
- Exponential smoothing (simple, double, triple)
- Trend analysis and linear regression
- Seasonal decomposition
- Choosing the right forecasting method
Module 5.3: Advanced Forecasting Techniques
- Multiple regression for demand prediction
- ARIMA models introduction
- Handling promotional effects and outliers
- New product forecasting
- Forecast value added (FVA) analysis
Module 5.4: Forecast Performance Management
- Measuring forecast accuracy
- Identifying bias in forecasts
- Continuous improvement processes
- Forecast error analysis
- Adjusting safety stock based on forecast accuracy
Hands-On Exercise:
- Build forecasts using 3 different methods
- Compare forecast accuracy across methods
- Create a forecast accuracy tracking dashboard
- Adjust forecasts for seasonal products
Tools Covered: Excel (Data Analysis ToolPak), R/Python basics